Ecosystem signals
Capability is one thing; adoption is another. Two lenses on demand — where tokens get routed in production (OpenRouter) and which model weights the world is pulling down (Hugging Face). Verified 2026-07-09.
OpenRouter — routed usage
69.1%
of routed tokens go to open weights
Open passed closed around Q1 2026 and kept climbing — up from ~22% a year ago.
16.3%
of all tokens route through DeepSeek
The largest single provider on the router — ahead of Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic individually.
6 of 10
top models by volume are Chinese open weights
DeepSeek V4 Flash is #1, Tencent's Hy3 Preview #2 (listed at $0.063 per 1M input tokens).
~12%
Anthropic token share — but the revenue lead
Premium per-token pricing means Claude captures the most dollars while open models take the volume.
Open vs closed token share
Share of routed tokens. Endpoints reported; interior points approximate (≈).
Volume is not value
Why both sides claim they're winning.
Token share measures volume, not value. Cheap open models absorb bulk workloads (extraction, summarization, high-volume agents) while premium closed models keep the tasks where a bad output costs real money. Both statements are true at once: open weights run most tokens; closed models earn most revenue.
The tell in the data
US labs' combined token share fell from ~70% to ~30% in twelve months, yet Anthropic — at ~12% of tokens — still captures the most revenue on the router. Cheap tokens flow to open weights; expensive decisions stay closed.
Hugging Face — open-model downloads
41%
of past-year Hub downloads are Chinese models
Over 45% on recently uploaded models — Hugging Face reports China overtook the US on recent adoption.
1B+
cumulative Qwen downloads by March 2026
The fastest any open family has reached the milestone; 153.6M downloads in February alone — more than the next eight combined.
113k+
derivative models built on Qwen
More derivatives than Google and Meta combined — the ecosystem moat compounding on top of raw downloads.
5 of 10
trending models from Chinese labs
Highest concentration on record after the June frontier wave; DeepSeek's newest Flash took #1 within a week.
Download share by lab origin
Share of open-model downloads by publishing lab's region. Endpoints from Hugging Face reporting; interior points approximate (≈).
Trending on the Hub right now
After the June frontier wave. Download counts move daily, so ranks are shown without stale precision.
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
#1 within a week of release
Qwen 3.7
1B+ cumulative family downloads
GLM-5.2
MIT license; open frontier leader
Llama 4.5
Gemma 4
5 of the top 10 trending models are from Chinese labs — the highest concentration on record.